Search Frictions, Financial Frictions, and Labor Market Fluctuations in...
This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of work in the context of business cycles in emerging markets with a financial friction. The earlier literature analyzed the role of...
View ArticleThe Interaction of Real and Financial Markets in the Global Economy: What...
This chapter examines the role that China plays in the global economy for the propagation offinancial uncertainty and volatility. For this purpose, it seeks to measure the interdependence ofreal and...
View ArticleForecasting Inflation With Survey Expectations and Inflation Targets:...
In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations and the inflation target set by central banks. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are...
View ArticleGrowth Spillovers for the MENA Region: Geography, Institutions or Trade?
In this paper, we examine the role of spatial spillovers in economic growth for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We explicitly model spatial interactions that may arise on the basis of...
View ArticleAmbiguous Buisness Cycles: A Quantitative Analysis
In this paper, we examine the cyclical dynamics of a Real Business Cycle model with ambiguity averse consumers and investment irreversibility using the smooth ambiguity model of Klibanoff et al...
View ArticleBorrowing Constraints and Saving in Turkey
The Turkish macroeconomic experience since 2002 has been characterized by three striking trends: (1)an accelerated growth rate of income, (2) a sharp decline in the real interest rate, and (3) a...
View ArticleModelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real-time Predicting of...
In this paper, we propose a method for real-time prediction of recessions using large setsof economic and financial variables with mixed frequencies. This method combines a dynamicfactor model for the...
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